Given that half of the population on the planet is in the active workforce, which would be about four billion people, a forecast by Morgan Stanley that by 20250 one billion humanoid robots are going to populate the planet, this would mean that we could significantly increase the workforce in the form of humanoids. We can expect that the output of this additional workforce would as high or even higher than humans ever could. In a bit over two decades from now, technological progress will make humanoids faster, more efficient, more effective and more skilled in their work. Humanoids also would not require taking breaks and could go almost 24 hours seven days a week, with downtimes for charging (maybe) and maintenance.
With the International Monetary Fund’s estimate of the world’s GPD for 2026 at $126.3 trillion and at $151.4 trillion by 2030, as well as the Earth’s current population of 8.26 billion, we can calculate the average human’s contribution to the GPD. On average every human contributes in 2026 roughly $15,250, by 2030 this number will be at about $17,700. By 2050, the global population will reach about 9.7 billion, with a GDP – based on an annual growth rate of 4.7 percent – of about $379 billion. The estimated average individual contribution to the GDP reaches about $39,000.
If we add humanoids into that equation, starting with one million humanoids in 2030, raising to 1 billion in 2050, the numbers look different. If we estimate that a humanoid is about as productive as a human – 1:1 – the individual GDP could be at $47,000 or 21% higher than without humanoids. If humanoids turn out to be 2.5 times more productive than humans -2.5:1 – given the same capabilities in the tasks and them working almost 24/7, the numbers for an individual GDP reach about $59,000, or 34 percent higher than without humanoids.
Of course, this is just a simple model based on the conservatively estimated humanoid population in 2050 that Morgan Stanley presented. Productivity gains do not only come from adding humanoids in a production or service process, but they come from changing the process to use the full potential of humanoids. In addition, humanoids will increase existing markets and open new markets that have been untapped. By 2050 it is likely that new technologies such as nuclear fusion or quantum computing will accelerate the innovation rate even more and grow the GDP together with humanoids above the levels of the calculations presented in Figure 55.
A second effect beside an increased GDP is the continuing abundance of products and services. What the authors of Superabundance had backed with facts and statistics collected over several centuries, the trend of more and cheaper resources and food will continue. When humanoids touch every service and product, the prices of the output will fall.
The elephant in the room is into whose pockets this humanoid generated wealth will be going? To the ten billionaires or to the ten billion humans?
Humanoid robots – and actually every technology – should elevate human existence, not sideline them, not suppress them, not making humans work for the benefit of or force them into structures to serve machines, leaving humans just with the scraps.
The wealth generated with humanoid robots (and other technologies) can free humans from the requirement of working, with “working” purely meant as the necessity to earn money to pay rent, buy food, have health insurance and all the necessities to lead a decent live. We’d be still free to do work, but we wouldn’t have to hold a paid job.
Our world is designed to raise and serve humans that can follow instructions and function in an environment that requires us to hold a job. From education to retirement, we built everything around so that humans – in the worst form – just do what is required, not question this life and shut up, or – in the best – find sense in their “honest and good” – a.k.a. dirty, dangerous and dull jobs.
How would a world with humanoids that serve humans look like? We’d probably want to share the wealth created by our artificial minions with everyone in a way that their rent is paid, their food and necessities are secured, without requiring humans to have or hold a job. A job is, if we look at it, something relatively new in human history. For half a million years humans were just humans, not carpenters, product managers or taxi drivers. Humans didn’t define and reduce themselves to such a job title, they were part of their tribe, clan and people, each with their unique abilities.
Freeing humans from a job helps all of us to free us from valuing and judging fellow humans just simply by their occupation. This would make us all more human – and humane. I understand that jobs give people purpose or sense, but why is this? We tell people from a young age on that the sense in life is getting an education, get a job, marry, have kids, and only in retirement we are allowed to do with our time whatever we want. Many humans wasted a lifetime doing something they thought is their lives’ purpose, only to regret later that they were not brave enough or didn’t have the means to do what they really were passionate about.
With humanoid robots, we finally have the means to change that. If, and that is a big IF, we are setting this up properly. It starts with how we – and with that I mean our societies and governments – take care of the wealth created. Are we doing nothing and have the owners of those technologies reap all the benefits? Are we taxing humanoid labor as we are doing today with human labor, and redistribute that income in the form of, let’s say, a Universal Basic Income to everyone? Are we going to change the education system so that children don’t learn how to follow instructions and function in factories, offices and the military, but instead how they can find their own purpose and sense of life and lead a happy, fulfilled life?
We are not the gatherer and hunters from half a million of 20,000 years ago, and that life was not easy. One could expect to live on average about 25 years, were constantly on the hunt for shelter and food, all the while trying to not become the prey for predators, diseases, or simply the nature. Thanks to technology, our lives became easier, more fulfilled, safer, longer-lived, and offer us more options. Technology in combination with good policies freed us from the burden of hardships, many diseases, hunger, cold, or early deaths. Humanoids are now another technology that frees us from the burden of jobs and gives us the choice of what we want to spend our time with, including a job. With that, I argue, humans are handed back the option to be more human than ever before. If I don’t have to spend most of my time to hunt for food, seek shelter, escape predators, or hold a job to pay rent, I have time to do what I innately feel I was born to do. For some it will be art, for others, music, others, want to invent, others just master their videogame skills, the next just make plants growing in their backyard, and some will just be doing nothing, but maybe discover new philosophies on the way of idling.
This is an excerpt from my book HOMO SYNTHETICUS: Wie Mensch und Maschine verschmelzen.
